UCL Top 11

Who shines this week?

A stats model picks the players most likely to score, assist or keep a clean sheet in this week's Champions League games. Three things to know before you scroll.

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  1. 1

    Two teams

    The First XI is the best pick in every position. The Second XI is who comes next.

  2. 2

    The shirt number is his chance

    A 56 means a 56% chance to shine. For forwards and midfielders that is a goal or an assist. For defenders a clean sheet counts too. For the keeper, only the clean sheet.

  3. 3

    Tap a shirt

    See why he is in and what could go wrong, pick your captain, or compare him with another player in the Fantasy corner. After full time every shirt gets a ✓ or a ✕.

First XI

the number = his chance to shine, in %

Second XI

next in line behind them

Playing Champions League Fantasy? to put two players side by side and get the free weekly brief.

The pecking order

the model's estimatelikely range1st XI2nd XInext
Show both elevens as a table

Scorers and creators

Every outfield player the model looked at this week. Further right means more expected goals per 90 minutes, higher up means more expected assists. Hover over a dot, or tap it, for his name and chance to shine.

First XISecond XIeveryone else
Show these numbers as a table

Not available

Big names the model left out because of injury or suspension.

    Track record

    After each matchday every pick is marked as delivered or blank, next to how many the model expected.

    Fixtures

    Kick-off times are Brussels time. Highlighted clubs have a player in one of the two elevens.

    How the numbers are made

    1. Form. Each player's expected goals and expected assists per 90 minutes, from this season's league games plus last season's at half weight. Small samples are pulled toward the average for the position, so three hot games do not crown anyone.
    2. Opponent. That rate is scaled by how many goals his team is expected to score in this match.
    3. Minutes. Then multiplied by the minutes he is likely to play, with a top-up for penalty takers.
    4. Chance. A Poisson model turns the result into the chance of at least one goal or assist. A clean sheet chance comes from how many goals the opponent is expected to score. For defenders the two are combined.
    5. Team sheet. Each eleven is a 4-3-3: one keeper, two full-backs, two centre-backs, three midfielders and three forwards, with at most two defenders from one club. Wingers count as forwards and number tens as midfielders.

    The likely range is a rough plus or minus 20% on the underlying rates, wider for players with a role or selection doubt. No attacking number is allowed above 75%. These are statistical estimates, not guarantees or betting advice.

    Limits for this matchday
      Sources

      Earlier best elevens

      The best eleven of every earlier matchday this season.

      A number on the shirt is the model's chance before the games, marked ✓ or ✕ afterwards. A star means he was named in the team of the week after the games.